Climate Variability and its Implications for the Sustainability and Resilience of Maize Production in the Northern Region of Ghana

Abstract

Climate variability remains one of the most significant shocks undermining agricultural productivity, particularly in rain-fed systems dominated by smallholder farmers. This study evaluates the impact of rainfall and temperature variability on maize yield, examines the relationship between these climatic variables, and explores adaptive practices aimed at mitigating the effects of dry spells and temperature fluctuations in the Tolon District. Secondary data were employed to assess the time-series trends in maize yield and climatic variables. The Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s Slope estimator, and Pearson correlation analysis were applied to identify monotonic trends and relationships among climate parameters and maize yield. The results revealed no statistically significant trends in annual rainfall (p = 0.0798), maximum temperature (p = 0.4691), or maize yield (p = 0.0679) over the study period. However, the minimum temperature exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend (p = 0.00017), rising by approximately +0.083°C per year. A positive correlation was observed between annual rainfall and maize yield (r = 0.425). Although no significant yield trend was detected, maize production showed a slight annual increase of about +0.039 t/ha, likely attributable to improved agronomic practices and the adoption of enhanced seed varieties.